A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
